TRENDS IN INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY FROM DISEASES INCLUDED IN DISEASE MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS: DIABETES MELLITUS, ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION, CHRONIC HEART FAILURE

Abstract

Introduction. The number of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is increasing worldwide, mainly cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus. In Kazakhstan, disease management programs (DMP) for three nosologies have been introduced to reduce the risk of NCDs. Aim: To study incidence and mortality rates trends from three nosologies included in DMP: diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic heart failure (CHF) and arterial hypertension in Almaty city. Materials and methods. The data were obtained from the National Scientific Center for Health Development in Almaty. For the incidence analysis, data were obtained from 2016 to 2023, since the PHI was implemented during this period, while for mortality, data were obtained from 2013 to 2023. To predict the number of incidence and mortality for three types of nosologies, the linear regression method Results. The incidence per 100,000 population for all three nosologies is growing in all age groups: DM from 2230.5 to 3621.3, for hypertension from 6596.9 to 11811.3 and for CHF from 321.8 to 1432.9. An increase in mortality from diabetes mellitus was observed from 2.85 to 22.34, and a further increase to 42.48 per 100.000 population is expected. Similarly, an increase in hypertension was observed from 2.17 to 12.67 from 2013 to 2023, and its growth to 20.58 is expected by 2028. A decrease in CHF was observed from 20.21 to 9.20 by 2023, and a further reduction to 1.24 by 2028 is expected. Conclusion. Our analysis shows an increase in the incidence of all three nosologies, in particular, diabetes and CHF at a young age, while hypertension and CHF in the age group of 60-74 years. Positive dynamics is the improvement in the coverage of patients involved in the PHC, but there has been a decrease in the proportion of patients in all three nosologies in the last two years